Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2024 State of Luxury Report*

Canada’s luxury real estate market eased into spring with modest sales gains across key metropolitan cities, as the dynamic between prospective home sellers and buyers improved, and pricing expectations continued to come into alignment. Despite strengthening consumer confidence and an increase in early-stage market engagement in the initial months of 2024, the expectation of additional property listings supply and potential interest rate declines prompted some buyers and sellers to defer transactions into the spring market. As a result, the country’s major metropolitan areas are expected to see a moderate improvement in sales activity across the luxury and conventional markets in the months ahead.

“Over the past two years, as conventional and luxury real estate market conditions softened under the influence of climbing interest rates and changes to taxes and regulations relating to home ownership, persistent tension defined the interactions between home sellers holding onto lofty pricing expectations from previous peaks, and buyers seeking properties priced for the current market. This stand-off slowed transactional momentum in several of Canada’s major metropolitan luxury real estate markets in 2023, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, where hyper-inflation of luxury housing prices was the previous norm,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “Luxury market dynamics at the start of 2024 reflect a progressive shift in consumer psychology: sellers are now engaging in the market with more realistic pricing strategies, and in some cases, greater motivation to sell. This is setting the stage for productive negotiations with buyers and investors. We expect to see higher transactional volumes and improved market fluidity throughout the spring market.”

According to Kottick, Alberta’s luxury real estate market has continued to defy national trends and outperform other major metropolitan areas as its major cities, Calgary and Edmonton, continue to attract new residents motivated by favourable costs of living, comparatively affordable top-tier home prices and a dynamic business climate.

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Toronto

According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2024 State of Luxury Report, consumer dynamics in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) evolved in the first quarter of 2024, setting the stage for measured sales gains and a balanced market this spring. As the price expectations of home sellers and prospective buyers came into better alignment, both pre-transactional and sales activity increased across the region’s luxury market. As a result, residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) between January 1–March 31 climbed 18% year-over-year from the first quarter of 2023. In these preliminary months of the year, there were no property sales over $10 million recorded on Multiple Listings Service (MLS), in contrast to the single property sold in the same period of 2024. Overall GTA residential sales over $1 million rose 11% year-over-year.

Vancouver

Vancouver’s luxury residential real estate market experienced a notable increase in pre-transactional activity in the first quarter of 2024, as consumer and real estate industry confidence continued to strengthen within a market that remained in balance. However, a significant cohort of prospective purchasers continued to await a wider selection of property listings inventory in the spring market to follow. As a result, residential sales over $4 million were down 17% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, with none of these recorded over $10 million on MLS compared to four transactions in the first quarter of 2023. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales were largely on par with previous year’s levels, with a marginal 1% year-over-year shortfall.

Montréal

Luxury sales activity in Montreal reflected a stronger-than-anticipated start to 2024, as residential sales over $1 million between January 1–March 31 increased 53% year-over-year within a market that maintained balanced conditions overall. Residential real estate sales over $4 million were on par with first-quarter 2023 levels at eight units sold.

Calgary

Record in-migration, a bold economy and soaring end-consumer and investor confidence in housing continued to strengthen Calgary’s luxury real estate market performance in the first quarter of 2024. Between January 1–March 31, residential sales over $1 million surged 63% year-over-year, positioning the city as one of Canada’s most dynamic and top-performing luxury markets. $4 million-plus sales were also up year-over-year in the first quarter to two properties sold, in contrast to the quiet market experienced in the first quarter of 2023.

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*Disclaimer The information contained in this report references market data from MLS boards across Canada. Sotheby’s International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada or Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.